The political weakness of President Javier Milei was exposed as he broke his own presidential criterion and fell into deficit. Of course, he can continue as he has been. The maneuver seemed perfect: if the chapter on the provinces were voted in favor, they would obtain funds that the state would save by repealing the specified laws. Nothing went according to plan. It was designed with the logic imposed by President Milei, starting from the end: the budget result must yield a fiscal surplus capable of meeting debt maturities in the period. To make matters worse, the approved budget defunds the City of Buenos Aires, creating even more noise. What could happen in this scenario, unthinkable just two days ago, with the labor, criminal, and tax reforms? The Peronists accepted the positions but did not vote for the law, while the PRO was left with nothing. The 2026 budget that was finally approved by the deputies in the early hours of yesterday would not only fail to show the expected fiscal surplus but could even result in a deficit (the final numbers are still unknown). In any case, it would jeopardize the payment of the debt services. With what funds will the necessary reserves be purchased to meet the maturities? However, these laws have already gone through all possible institutional stages; they were passed, vetoed, reintroduced, and voted on again within the budget. Therefore, both the president and his ministers could be exposed to criminal complaints for failing to fulfill their official duties. The head of the Executive Branch and his Chief of Cabinet made errors in conception and parliamentary strategy that led to a fiasco, ending without the expected fiscal surplus and with the rupture of previously established alliances. This is particularly true for the treatment of the 2026 Budget in the Chamber of Deputies. This budget, the first of this administration to be approved by Parliament, as required by the IMF and the Trump government. The consideration of the budget project in the Deputies did not go as planned. This is where a significant portion of the government's expense control policy was concentrated: the repeal of laws that allocated funds to people with disabilities, pediatric emergencies, universities, and cold regions, and that decoupled the Universal Child Allowance (AUH) from pension mobility. Thus, Chapter 11 became a true Trojan horse for the ruling party. To play it safe, the government, after achieving a positive committee report in the Senate today on the labor reform, decided to postpone its consideration until February 10. This chapter was complemented by the allocation of funds to the provinces. Not complying with the laws and denying resources to the disabled, the Garrahan hospital, and the universities. The president can veto the budget they themselves elaborated or agree to its approval. Now it is up to the Senate to make the corrections that will yield a surplus. The distribution of positions for the General Audit Office of the Nation and other typical maneuvers of the 'caste' also remains unresolved. From there, the rest of the budget items and their financing are defined. It is worth noting that in the days prior, in various interviews that journalists conducted with different deputies, it became evident that many of them did not know what they were voting for. The nearly 100 billion pesos invested in ATN to buy the votes of governors were in vain. Emboldened by the election results, the government took a misstep. A day that would have consequences: it began in the early hours with the unexpected negative vote on Chapter 11, continued with the massive concentration called by the CGT and supported by the CTA, social movements, and the anticapitalist left, and ended with the postponement of the debate on the labor reform. By Eduardo Lucita, a member of the Economists of the Left (EDI) collective.
