Experts agree that if Argentina's country risk falls to 400 points, the country would be in a position to return to international debt markets. This is the 'psychological barrier' that Argentina has almost reached after breaking the 500-point floor this Wednesday. Iván Cachanosky, chief economist at the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, stated that 'the drop in the country risk is very positive, by breaking the 500 points, which is already starting to be a very, very good signal.' The last time it was at these levels was in 2018. 'Given the international context—with the Fed's interest rate—for Argentina to return to international markets and borrow at a reasonable rate, the country risk should fall to 400 points. Hopefully, this will be accompanied by reforms.' The fall in the country risk leaves Argentina about 60 points away from Ecuador's EMBI, which this week made a debt issuance with maturities in 2034 and 2039, at rates of 8.75% and 9.25%, respectively. The government of that country received offers for US$ 2.480 billion corresponding to the 2030 bonds and US$ 2.120 billion of the 2035 bonds, in the context of its cash repurchase program. In total, Ecuador will repurchase approximately US$ 3.000 billion in global bonds, mainly from bonds maturing in 2030 and, to a lesser extent, from the 2035 bonds. For everything to flow in this direction, Argentina's accumulation of reserves will be key to making an international market exit as smooth as possible, said Juan Manuel Franco, chief economist of Grupo SBS. 'Obviously, if it falls more, it's better; but with 400 points it could already return to the international markets at a reasonable rate. There is a big one in July, but at least today Argentina is giving the signal that it can get through to June calmly, and I think that was rewarded with the drop in the country risk.'
