More than half of industrial entrepreneurs reported simultaneous drops in production and sales in January, with signs of cooling in employment and a visible deterioration in payment chains. Among the main complications, taxes and suppliers stood out; consequently, interest payments and higher financial costs (39.8%) and an increase in short-term debt (38.1%) were mentioned. In second place was the increase in costs (19.7%), with a focus on labor costs; and in third place, the difficulty of competing with imported goods (19.4%), a concern that the UIA noted as growing in recent surveys. 45.6% of companies reported difficulties in meeting at least one of these commitments: salaries, suppliers, taxes, public services, or financial debts. In January, 22.2% of companies reduced their workforce. In exports, 30% spoke of declines and 14.3% of increases, a deterioration smaller than that of the domestic market, but with a worsening compared to previous months. The impact is being transferred to employment, an area where every adjustment has a name and a face. This data comes from the latest survey by the Argentine Industrial Union (UIA), which consulted 644 companies of different sizes and sectors between February 2 and 16, and released it in an increasingly harsh political climate: just one day after calling for dialogue and 'respect' from the national government, following criticisms from President Javier Milei of the business sector during the opening of the sessions in Congress. The picture described by the survey combines hard numbers and a perception that is repeated in the hallways of plants: activity is not regaining traction in the domestic market, costs are rising, competition with imports is gaining ground, and many firms are starting to look at their cash reserves with concern. At the heart of the industrial sector, this combination translates into a simple phrase: sell less, with high costs, competing against products that arrive with more aggressive prices. The report was released amid an escalating political conflict. In domestic sales, the dynamics were almost a mirror: 54.7% reported a decrease and only 13.3% indicated an increase. This is a decrease of 7.5 percentage points from the previous survey and keeps the indicator below 50, the threshold that marks expansion, for the fifteenth consecutive measurement. The UIA warned that January is usually affected by seasonality—vacations, plant shutdowns, logistical adjustments—but even so, it emphasized that the value of the MDI was the second lowest for that month in the series and was 5.6 points below the record of a year ago. This is a typical picture of stress: when activity falls, financing becomes more expensive, and the wheel starts to squeak in a chain. When asked about the main challenge, 46.1% identified the fall in domestic demand as the most relevant problem. In the case of employment, the negative effect was observed with greater weight in larger companies, an indicator that usually triggers additional alarms: when adjustment reaches large structures, its impact on suppliers and contractors is usually felt more strongly and quickly. The financial front also appears as an increasingly evident bottleneck. And 5.4% admitted to delays in all these payments. Looking ahead, the survey left a worrying piece of data: 26% of respondents anticipate they will reduce their workforce in the next twelve months, while 19.4% expect to hire workers. In line with this, the head of the entity, Martín Rappallini, reiterated the need for institutional dialogue, arguing that adaptation to a new scheme is not homogeneous or immediate, especially for sectors exposed to external competition and a weakened domestic consumption. In parallel, recent official data from INDEC had already been showing a fragile behavior in the manufacturing industry, with year-on-year declines in the latest records of 2025. That is, even considering the 'industrial summer', the thermometer still shows a fever. In production, 53.3% of companies reported a decrease compared to the average of the fourth quarter of last year, while only 13% declared an increase. After President Milei's speech, the UIA leadership issued a statement with a direct message: it demanded respect for those who 'produce, invest, and generate employment' and called for clear rules to navigate the economic transformation. Among the firms that cut staff, half resorted to layoffs, 41.4% reduced shifts, and 22.9% applied suspensions. That is why, behind each percentage in the survey, the real discussion is one: how much more can the industry resist without the damage becoming structural. In the business reading, the UIA survey acts as a confirmation 'from within' of what is perceived 'from the outside': the pulse of the factory is low, the recovery is not consolidating, and the underlying discussion—how demand is rebuilt, how competitiveness is improved without destroying employment, and how the tax and financial front is ordered—returns to the center of the debate. The most delicate signal, agree industrialists from different sectors, is that the problem is no longer limited to a bad month or a specific sector. The persistence of the MDI in contraction territory and the expansion of payment delays suggest a tension that is prolonged and forces many companies to take defensive measures. In this defense, the first variable that is usually adjusted is investment; and when investment stalls, the future shrinks. Under these circumstances, the Industrial Performance Monitor (MDI)—the index the entity uses as an advance indicator of the evolution of the manufacturing sector—stood at 36.5 points. This contrast leaves a diffusion index of -40.3 percentage points, a signal of a broad and not concentrated decline in one or two sectors. In plain terms, the majority is not thinking about growing: they are thinking about holding on. SMEs showed a similar pattern, although with greater intensity in production and sales.
