The ruling party will seek to advance this week in negotiations with the dialogue blocs of the Chamber of Deputies regarding the 2025 Budget, which La Libertad Avanza (LLA) wants to approve in a session to be held at the end of November. The working scheme designed by the libertarian bloc is to be able to finish the informative meetings by Wednesday, November 6, issue a ruling by Tuesday, November 12, and hold a session on the 26th or 27th of next month, so that the Senate can approve it in the extraordinary period.
The negotiations are taking place in parallel to the meetings of the Budget Committee, chaired by José Luis Espert, where on Tuesday the Secretary of the National Children, Adolescence, and Family, Yanina Nano Lembo, and the head of tourism, Daniel Scioli, are expected to attend to present. In the case of funds allocated for children, 4 billion pesos will be allocated to different programs.
In recent weeks, La Libertad Avanza has held talks with the PRO, the radical bloc, Encuentro Federal, and Innovación Federal to determine the points where they can reach agreements and those where the ruling party does not want to yield. The ruling party sets as a condition for changes to be introduced that its policy of fiscal surplus in primary spending is maintained.
The negotiations are being undertaken by the Secretary of Treasury, Carlos Guberman, Espert, the President of the Chamber of Deputies, Martín Menem, and the provisional President of the Senate, Bartolomé Abdala. The Union Cívica Radical has already warned the officials that they do not want to leave to the discretion of the Government the use of the surplus revenue that will result from the underestimation of inflation, parliamentary sources reported.
The Budget anticipates an inflation rate of 18.3 percent annually and revenues amounting to $115.2 trillion pesos. However, since the estimates will be higher, the UCR is proposing to specify in the budget how those resources will be used, as they do not want them to be used for any discretionary spending, although the Government may argue otherwise. This position could also be supported by the Coalición Cívica and Encuentro Federal.
Negotiations are further advanced with the PRO as one of the claims regarding the co-participation of the city of Buenos Aires was resolved after an agreement was reached between the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, and the head of the Buenos Aires government, Jorge Macri. The UCR, CC, and Encuentro Federal have other claims that are more complex to resolve, such as including an 8 percent increase for retirees to compensate for January's inflation as was included in the vetoed law, and the increase for universities.
Parliamentary sources believe it will be more difficult to agree with the Government on any reforms to the articles regarding the adjustment for retirees than on those related to universities. There are also demands from the dialogue blocs regarding pension funds, resources to comply with the forestry law, maintaining the Teacher Financing law, and progressing with the works plan that is already advancing in the provinces.
Another point that will be debated is the tax expenditures which for the year 2025 amount to $27,025,062.8 million, equivalent to 3.54% of GDP, of which 3,321,123.9 million corresponds to compensation funds and the rest to tax exemptions such as those for judges who do not pay income tax. It is essential for the ruling party that the "law of laws" is supported by the blocs of the PRO, UCR, Encuentro Federal, Innovación Federal, and Coalición Cívica, as the LLA only has 39 legislators.
Other firm allies like the MID, a breakaway from the ruling party, which has 3 members, 3 from the Independencia bloc, and one from CREO. With these permanent allies, they reach 44 legislators, requiring about 85 legislators to achieve the 129 needed to open the debate and have a majority to approve each article of the project setting expenditures and resources for 2025.
The agreements between La Libertad Avanza and the dialogue blocs are not only crucial to secure votes in the chamber but also to hold a majority in the Budget and Finance Committee. That parliamentary body has 49 deputies, of which the LLA has 6 members, MID 2, PRO 7, UCR 6, 2 Encuentro Federal, Innovación Federal 2, Producción y Trabajo 1, and 2 from Coalición Cívica while Unión por la Patria has 20 and the left 1.
To achieve a majority, at least 22 signatures must be gathered to surpass Unión por la Patria and the left, which have been signing the rulings together, although some blocs sign in partial dissent. The 2025 Budget also includes total current and capital expenditures of 117.6 trillion pesos, with an anticipated economic growth of 5 percent. Economic growth will be driven by a 6.2 percent increase in industry and 6.7 percent in commerce, with investment increasing by 9.9 percent, while private consumption will rise by 4.5 percent.
