Argentina Poll: Peronism Leads Milei's Government for First Time

Argentina's political landscape is beginning to shift, serving as an uncomfortable political signal for a government that until recently seemed electorally invincible. According to a recent poll, for the first time this year, a national survey shows Peronism and Axel Kicillof leading over La Libertad Avanza and President Javier Milei. In a projected 2027 presidential runoff, Kicillof would secure 45% of the vote compared to Milei's 42%. This shift forces the ruling party to reconsider its strategy, discourse, and agenda. For much of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, the government could absorb costs as it still projected an image of direction, firmness, and electoral superiority. However, the data now carries its own weight: for the first time since the libertarian legislative triumph, a national poll shows Peronism in the lead and Kicillof surpassing Milei in the most closely watched political duel. Now, this combination has begun to crumble, marking a turning point that is impacting the political climate. The poll also explains why electoral wear and tear has become more visible. In just a few weeks, the government went from looking down on the opposition to seeing it at the top of the polls, albeit with a narrow margin. The data shows that the Peronist/Kicillof/CFK bloc has 37% voting intention, while La Libertad Avanza/Milei has 35%. This explains the growing concern in the Casa Rosada. The social climate has also darkened: 51% of respondents have negative feelings about the future, 59% disapprove of the government, and 69% believe inflation will not decrease. This data helps to understand why the ruling bloc is losing traction. For a government that made political strength its central brand, this is no minor stumble. It is not just that the ruling party has retreated, but that for the first time, a clear channeling of this wear and tear in favor of a concrete opposition figure is beginning to emerge. This is a serious warning. The persistence of economic difficulties in sensitive sectors, the wear and tear of governance, and scandals involving those in power are beginning to erode public patience. In this context, the most delicate political fact for Mileism is not only the decline in its own numbers but the return of Peronism as a competitive force, with Kicillof starting to consolidate himself as a figure capable of capturing some of this public discontent.