Buenos Aires province could be the key stage for a hypothetical runoff between Governor Axel Kicillof and President Javier Milei. A poll released on Thursday shows Kicillof leading Milei with 48% of the vote to 41%. This lead of 4 to 7 points is consistent with the latest public opinion polls from February and March 2026. 9% of those surveyed would not vote for either candidate, while 3% have no opinion or are undecided. Kicillof's stronghold is concentrated in the Greater Buenos Aires area, especially in the Third Electoral Section (La Matanza, Lomas de Zamora, and Quilmes), where his management in education and public works enjoys an approval rating close to 48%. In this territory, Milei has a negative differential in most municipalities, with disapproval of his economic management exceeding 55%. Meanwhile, the president maintains his strength in the provincial interior, although he is showing wear in the second belt of the conurbation, attributed to the impact of tariffs and transportation. Kicillof harvests a positive provincial image of around 45% and is perceived as a 'shield' against national adjustment policies. The young vote in Buenos Aires shows fragmentation linked to the crisis in national universities located in the province, while the retired vote has largely shifted towards the opposition after pension reforms and the increase in the cost of medication. If a runoff were held today in Buenos Aires province, Kicillof would consolidate the province as the main bastion of opposition to the national government. His negative image is concentrated among voters who would not support his progressive proposals. Milei, for his part, has a positive image in Buenos Aires below his national average, between 38% and 39%, although he retains a hard core of 35% that remains stable despite the economic context. Two segments that were decisive for Milei's national victory in 2023 are now showing signs of reconfiguration. The information corresponds to the monthly work of the Opinaia consultancy.
