Various economists and financial entities have made forecasts for the behavior of the official dollar during 2025, in the context of the removal of the currency controls that the government of Javier Milei is promoting and which he confirmed will be implemented before next year. According to the President, if no help is received from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the controls will disappear on January 1, 2026. It has been suggested that if the disbursements are made sooner, this removal could happen more quickly.
Regarding the price of the dollar, various experts agree that an increase in the exchange rate is expected. According to the latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) from the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), an exchange rate of $1,201 is estimated for December of this year. Miguel Kiguel, a specialist in macroeconomics and financial markets, mentioned that a dollar at $1,200 would not be an alarming number, as it would represent a devaluation of 15%. Kiguel emphasized that this increase would not generate significant inflation nor would it be a cause for concern for the population.
Martín Mazza, director of MM Investments, pointed out that the expectations of devaluation have decreased according to the crawling peg of 1% per month, while the economy still faces challenges in balancing macroeconomic stability with the social impact of adjustments. Portfolio Personal Inversiones indicated that inflationary and devaluation expectations remain stable according to the latest REM, reducing the pace of devaluation expected for the coming months.
For its part, a report from Bank of America (BofA) titled "Weeks that feel like years" projected that the dollar could reach $1,400 if certain conditions are met, such as an agreement with the IMF and the realization of disbursements, which would result in new devaluation or a faster pace of the crawling peg. The report also forecasts that the official dollar will rise to $1,070 in the first quarter of the year, increasing to $1,170 in the second and reaching $1,250 in the third quarter, to close the year at $1,400, which would represent a 33% increase during 2025 and a peso devaluation of nearly 25% over a period of 12 months.
