According to experts, March is shaping up to be a very positive month for the Central Bank in terms of currency purchases in the foreign exchange market. This month marks the beginning of the liquidation of the agricultural bulk harvest, along with other financial operations that contribute to this upward trend in currency purchases.
In comparison with previous years, March is historically a month preceding the strongest months in terms of purchases (April and May). The best March recorded to date was in 2024, with purchases totaling USD 2,881 million, while the worst was in 2018, when USD 2,039 million were sold.
Throughout January and February, the Central Bank already accumulated positive balances of USD 1,436 million and USD 1,748 million respectively, which adds up to a total amount around USD 3,365 million. Pedro Siaba Serrate, head of research at Portfolio Personal Inversiones, points out that it is expected that as the seasonality of the bulk harvest liquidation continues and pressure on financial dollars decreases, the Central Bank will remain a buyer in the official foreign exchange market.
On the other hand, Juan Truffa, director of Outlier, agrees that March is expected to be a favorable month for the bank in terms of currency purchases. Despite net purchases so far amounting to nearly USD 3,600 million, according to consultancy 1816, this buying streak has not managed to improve reserves, which remain a crucial factor in current economic policy.
It is projected that in the second half of March, the inflow of dollars from the bulk harvest will alleviate the pressure in the demand for dollars from the population. This fact, combined with the liquidation of dollar loans, signals a promising month for the Central Bank, which remains attentive to market dynamics to bolster reserves, a necessary path for lifting the currency controls.
