According to recent data, the average monthly inflation rate measured through online prices was 1.4% on January 28, which represents a marked decrease from 3% monthly in mid-December. This figure was compared with that of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC), which had typically been above that of online prices until September 2024, due to regulated service prices.
However, since October that gap has been narrowing, and the monthly inflation rates of the CPI have practically equaled those of online prices. This trend is expected to continue into January 2025, which would also imply a strong reduction in the monthly rate that INDEC will publish in mid-February.
Former Minister of Economy, Domingo Cavallo, predicted a rise in the price of the dollar and offered his analysis on the future of inflation, the official data of which will be revealed on February 13. Cavallo pointed out that the gap between the CCL exchange rate and the official rate handled by the crawling peg tends to widen, mainly due to decreasing export revenue in that market and increasing demand for non-essential imports.
Regarding suggestions to increase net reserves, Cavallo proposed two measures. Firstly, to eliminate the blend dollar for exports so that all export revenues are sold to the Central Bank. Secondly, to increase tax incentives for exports, which would involve a reduction of withholdings on agricultural exports and regional economies already initiated.
Additionally, it was proposed to increase the internal tax refunds on manufactured exports and establish that the payment for tourism services and imports of final consumer goods be made with the CCL dollar, without the need for foreign currency from the BCRA. Cavallo also suggested allowing capital intended to finance foreign direct investments to enter through the CCL market or its equivalent.
In relation to inflation, the data of which will be published shortly, Cavallo expressed some considerations about possible measures and scenarios.
