According to experts consulted by El Cronista, the recent financial euphoria observed is related to the market's perception that Trump will win the elections and that Argentina could reach a new agreement with the IMF. Despite this, doubts persist about the viability of such an agreement.
In this sense, Luis Cubeddu, deputy director of the Western Hemisphere department, acknowledged Argentina's progress in reducing inflation and establishing sound fiscal policies. However, he mentioned ongoing challenges, such as the gradual elimination of capital controls. A new program is being worked on, although a better understanding of future plans and an evaluation of available options are required.
From a technical standpoint, uncertainties still exist regarding the possibility that the Argentine Government can reach a new agreement with the IMF before the current program ends. Martin Rapetti, an economics expert, considers it unlikely that an agreement will be reached in the short term.
A possible variable that could change this tense situation is the political factor. Managing the economy to increase the Central Bank's reserves and lift the dollar restrictions would be key. The possibility that a Trump victory in the U.S. elections may impact the negotiations is also presented as a scenario to consider.
The Argentine government has accumulated additional reserves during October, which could influence future negotiations with the IMF. There is a discrepancy between the exchange rate that the IMF suggests and what the Government considers necessary to protect low inflation. The goal is to improve credit conditions to regain access to international financial markets and eventually repay the agency's loan.
Amid these discussions, Argentine representatives recently traveled to the United States to participate in the annual IMF meeting. Despite the agency's praise for the direction of the Government's fiscal policies, negotiations for a new program are ongoing, as solutions to the technical and economic challenges posed are sought.
