Various economic consulting firms have made estimates about inflation in Argentina for the month of October. The lowest of these projections comes from the consulting firm of Orlando J. Ferreres, which estimated that inflation would stand at 2.6% for that month. According to specialists, food inflation in the first three weeks had reached 1.7%, and there was still a need to measure the current week along with the next one.
The analyses suggest that the reduction in gas tariffs has contributed to align regulated prices and the overall cost of living. For the C&T consulting firm, which conducts measurements in Greater Buenos Aires, a moderation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected in October, with an estimate ranging between 2.8% and 3%. Meanwhile, EcoGo estimates that inflation will be close to 3%.
Despite the downward trend expected in October, following the 3.5% recorded in September, there has been a rebound in food and beverage prices in recent days, which could complicate this outlook. A private report indicated that this sector grew by 1.7% in the fourth week of October, after experiencing a deflation of 0.1% in the third week.
According to the consultancy LCG, food prices increased by 1.7% in the last week, marking the highest variation since the first week of July. These data have led to an average monthly increase of 2.3%, while the measurement of four consecutive weeks stands at 3.3%. Meanwhile, Analytica projects a price variation of 3.3% for October.
Amid these estimates, President Javier Milei indicated that when the CPI reaches 2.5%, it would already be in a scenario of induced inflation. During October, significant increases have been observed in the prices of fruits (5.7%), dairy products and eggs (4.6%), and beverages and infusions (4.2%). On the other hand, products such as oils (-4.6%), condiments and other food products (-2.3%), and ready-to-eat meals (-1.3%) recorded the largest price reductions.
In September, inflation in Argentina broke through the key level of 4%, standing at 3.5%. This decrease had not been recorded since May, when it reached 4.2%. Consultancies have already begun to provide projections for October, with optimistic estimates pointing to 2.5% inflation, while others project 3.3%. In this scenario, the possibility of reducing the 'crawling peg' and lifting the currency controls is proposed in case there is no monetary surplus.
