The fall of the country risk to the lowest levels in the last five years has been mainly attributed to the certainty conveyed by the Argentine government that it will meet its debt payments next year, according to specialists. They highlight that, in addition to reducing the cost of living, Javier Milei has managed to reduce the index compiled by JP Morgan to half, which exceeded 1,900 points in December 2023. The start of public spending adjustment measures and the consolidation of fiscal balance have contributed to the gradual decline of the indicator.
Caputo and his team's trip to the United States, along with the confirmation of negotiations with international banks, have cleared the financial landscape. The successful outcome of the capital amnesty and disbursements by the World Bank and IDB during 2025 have also been positive factors. Meetings between Argentine officials and IMF executives have strengthened the perception of a new agreement with the organization following the arrival of a new administration in the White House.
The decrease in country risk has led to an increase in confidence, and financial analysts speak of a better market expectation regarding the possibility of collecting their bonds. According to a report by economist Fernando Marull, the payment the Government must make in terms of principal amounts to US$ 2 billion. The total payment, including interest, amounts to US$ 3.5 billion, of which the Treasury has already acquired and sent US$ 1.5 billion in interest to an account in New York.
Regarding Argentina's sovereign bonds, their value has risen, with Bonares increasing by up to 2.1% abroad (AL29D), and Globals recording increases of 2.55% (GD29D) during Friday. Additionally, the Central Bank's ability to buy around US$ 1.3 billion so far in October has been well received in financial markets. According to Central Bank data, since the beginning of the amnesty, the amount of money deposited in banks has experienced a growth of 26%.
