The war in the Middle East no longer only impacts energy markets: its effects are now projecting onto the global food system and agribusiness, leading to cost increases, greater volatility, and the risk of a new wave of food inflation. In this context, consumer behavior is also changing, with a shift towards private labels, a search for cheaper products, and less spending outside the home. According to a Rabobank report, disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are impacting five channels simultaneously: energy, fertilizers, logistics, international food trade, and consumer demand. The first and most widespread wave of consequences affects the energy sector. Rising oil and gas prices lead to more expensive diesel fuel, industrial electricity, land and sea transport, and fuel for agricultural machinery. For grain producers, this is an immediate problem, as fertilizers account for 40% to 50% of variable production costs. A rapid increase in their prices erodes profit margins if the grain price does not rise at the same pace. Another source of pressure is agrochemicals and petrochemicals. The production of crop protection products depends on petrochemical derivatives, and major manufacturers like China and India are exposed to higher energy costs. The conflict also threatens to raise the cost of packaging. Reuters has already reported cost increases for polymers and packaging in several markets affected by the crisis. In grains and oilseeds, the impact is less direct but is being felt through rising freight costs, maritime insurance rates, and volatility in agricultural futures. If the crisis prolongs, the most likely scenario will be a combination of persistent food inflation, higher agricultural costs, pressure on margins, supply chain disruptions, and increasing commodity volatility. In the livestock and dairy sectors, impacts are also being observed. Buyers in the Gulf region have advanced purchases of milk powder, a typical reaction to logistical crises. In poultry, some flows to the region have slowed, leading to stock accumulation and local price declines in some origins. For protein animal production, the problem is more visible: the Middle East is a significant importer of poultry, beef, lamb, and dairy, and the rising cost of transport or lengthening of routes particularly hurts exporters like Brazil and Australia. In fishing and aquaculture, the impact would be more moderate, but the closure of airspace and higher air transport costs are altering the competitiveness of high-value fresh products. For the global consumer, this means a loss of purchasing power. Rabobank projects a scenario where oil is around USD 110 per barrel and European gas is near EUR 100 per MWh, with inflation above 3% in Europe and the United States. The bank even estimates that real food consumption could fall by up to 0.5%, revealing that the crisis would not be limited to the producer or the industry but would ultimately hit final demand as well. Among the major players, the United States appears to be in a relatively better position. Its petrochemical industry is less dependent on Gulf crude as it uses ethane derived from shale gas, which could give it room to expand plastic exports and capture market share in Europe and Asia if the disruption persists.
