Over the last year and a half, Vaca Muerta has accelerated a reconfiguration already perceived as an epochal change: large multinational oil companies began to reduce their exposure or to leave Argentina altogether, while local companies gained volume through acquisitions, and the state oil company YPF seeks to secure an export leap with new international partners, including entities controlled by the United States. This transformation combines unprecedented opportunities due to the quality of the Neuquén shale against a backdrop that does not disappear: macroeconomic volatility, memory of currency controls, and the political risk that future administrations will reverse market reforms pushed by the government of Javier Milei. The turning point was the emergence of exit prices that surprised even sector executives. The result is conclusive: Vista, born in 2017, consolidated its place as the largest private 'pure' oil company in production within the Argentine shale, building scale from selective purchases from multinationals. Another chapter in this retreat was that of Malaysian Petronas, controlled by the State of Malaysia, which also sold assets in the country and withdrew from the front line of the large LNG project it was promoting with YPF. The American Continental Resources, linked to magnate Harold Hamm with strong shale experience in North America, partnered with Pan American Energy, while the Colombian GeoPark returned to the basin with a multi-year investment plan and access to local financing. In the same vein, the Anglo-Dutch Shell stepped away from that negotiation table in 2025, amid disagreements over financing and deadlines. After years in which many subsidiaries valued their Argentine assets with conservative criteria—due to exchange rate restrictions and difficulties in repatriating profits—several companies warned they could sell 'at a good price' and reallocate capital towards geographies considered less risky and more profitable. And the French TotalEnergies reduced its exposure in oil by transferring assets to YPF, although it maintained positions in gas, reflecting that the withdrawal is not uniform: some companies are cutting back only where they believe the risk-return no longer justifies it. On the other hand, the new map shows a relative strength of Argentine players, accustomed to operating with political cycles and changing restrictions. Pluspetrol became one of the big winners of the reordering after absorbing assets from ExxonMobil. Vista climbed with successive acquisitions and a profile that combines increasing production and growth ambition. YPF, for its part, tries to balance two boards: maintain leadership in production in Vaca Muerta and, at the same time, structure the export leap that allows it to transform gas into hard currency. Therein lies the most novel component: the entry or consolidation of foreign state partners in the Argentina LNG project. In the ruling party, they understand that adding backing from state capitals and corporations with technical backing helps reduce execution risk and sustain the project against local volatility. The window of opportunity is open, but the market continues to watch two variables as a condition: sustained macroeconomic stability and predictable rules of the game that survive political cycles. In Argentina, and on an institutional level that also marks the internal political climate, former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner will have to maintain the electronic ankle bracelet and the restrictions of her house arrest: the Federal Chamber of Criminal Cassation rejected the defense's arguments to remove the device and ease the conditions, despite contrary shenanigans, and ratified the existing control and supervision scheme. The Norwegian Equinor advanced with the divestment of its onshore business in Vaca Muerta in favor of Vista Energy, the company founded and led by Miguel Galuccio, in a transaction whose total value was around US$1.100 million considering cash, shares, and contingent payments, while Vista reported a net investment of US$712 million for stakes in relevant areas. The emblematic case was the sale of ExxonMobil's assets: at the end of 2024, the American company agreed to divest its shale oil positions to Pluspetrol for a figure close to US$1.700 million, an operation that also included a stake in key evacuation infrastructure such as the Oldelval pipeline. In parallel, YPF continues to seek a 'fourth partner' to reinforce its financial structure, with names linked to the Saudi Aramco universe among the alternatives circulating in the sector. The reordering also includes selective entries of non-traditional external firms in the country. In turn, the Brazilian Fluxus, from the J&F group, landed with a smaller but symbolic initial investment in terms of actor diversification. The common denominator is that Vaca Muerta ceased to be a board dominated by global majors and moved to a scheme where Argentine companies weigh more and where 'anchor' projects require large-scale alliances, many of them with foreign state participation. In recent days, YPF signed a joint development agreement with Eni—the Italian giant—and XRG, an actor from the United Arab Emirates, to advance an integrated production and liquefaction scheme that seeks to position Argentina as a global LNG supplier. That move created the 'window of exit' sensation and triggered a domino effect. The trend deepened in 2025 and 2026.
