According to the Market Expectations Survey (REM) published by the Central Bank, private analysts worsened their inflation forecasts for both the short and long term. As learned by the Argentine News Agency, the report, which consolidates the projections of 45 consultancies and financial entities, reflects a deterioration in price expectations amid the controversy over the postponement of the CPI base change and the resignation of Marco Lavagna from INDEC. What was January's inflation? Analysts estimated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January stood at 2.4%. This figure represents an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to what they expected in the previous survey. The 'Top 10' of the best forecasters coincided with the general average, also placing the figure at 2.4%. How much will prices rise throughout all of 2026? The upward revision also affected the annual outlook. For all of 2026, the market projects an inflation rate of 22.4%, a figure that exceeds the 20.1% they had estimated in the previous survey. The consultants in the Top 10 were even more pessimistic and raised their annual forecast to 24.5%. Looking ahead, for the next 12 months, the median of the estimates places inflation at 21%. At what rate will the dollar trade? Unlike prices, the dollar showed a downward correction in expectations, anticipating greater exchange rate stability. February 2026: An official average dollar of $1,475 is expected. Mid-year: For July, the projection is $1,604. Year-end: For December 2026, the consensus is an exchange rate of $1,750. This implies that the dollar would rise by 20.9% in the year, remaining slightly below the projected inflation. Will the economy grow? Regarding economic activity, REM cut its growth expectations. GDP is expected to grow by 3.2% during 2026, which represents a decrease of 0.3 points from the previous forecast. The Top 10 of analysts is more cautious and reduced its growth projection to 2.7%.
