Economy Politics Country 2026-02-06T16:27:32+00:00

Argentina's Central Bank Publishes Inflation and Dollar Forecasts

Argentina's Central Bank released its Market Expectations Survey (REM), where analysts predict a slowdown in inflation early in the year and a stable dollar exchange rate. The dollar is expected to reach 1,750 pesos by the end of 2026, with inflation continuing its decline.


Argentina's Central Bank Publishes Inflation and Dollar Forecasts

BUENOS AIRES, Feb. 6 (NA) -- The Central Bank published its Market Expectations Survey (REM) this Thursday, where leading consultancies adjusted their figures following the controversy over INDEC's measurement methods. The market anticipates a deceleration in price increases at the start of the year and a dollar that will keep pace with inflation. According to the Argentine News Agency, the report consolidates the projections of 45 participants and outlines the following scenario for 2026. Dollar: What will be its year-end price Analysts forecast a downward correction in short-term expectations, anticipating greater exchange rate stability. February: A wholesale dollar price of $1,475 is expected. December 2026: The projection for the end of the year places the dollar at $1,750. Evolution: This would imply an annual increase of 20.9%, slightly below the expected inflation for the same period. The price path of the currency shows a slow but constant slide: $1,502 in March, $1,526 in April, and $1,549 in May. Inflation: The January slowdown and the 2% floor The REM estimated that January inflation would have been 2.4%. If confirmed, this would be the first deceleration after seven months of increases, breaking the rising streak that hit 2.8% in December. What's next: A gradual downward path is expected with 2.1% in February and 2.2% in March. The break: Only from April would inflation break the 2% floor again, settling at 1.9%, to reach 1.5% in July. Activity and Rates GDP: The market is cautious and projects an economic growth of 3.2% for all of 2026, although the 'Top 10' of consultancies reduced that expectation to 2.7%. Fixed-Term Deposits: A nominal annual rate (TNA) of 31.8% is projected for February, with a downward trend that would take it to 22% by year-end.

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