The uncertainty about Argentina's bond payment capacity until 2029 has significantly decreased with the arrival of disbursements from the IMF and the postponement of capital maturities. The country is preparing to clean up the Central Bank's assets and carry out a new debt swap, with bond yields around 11% per year in dollars.
According to sources from the Treasury Palace, it was expected that the country risk would drop below 600 points after the IMF disbursement of $15 billion. However, the decline of country risk to desired levels may take time due to various factors, including the accumulation of reserves, the legislative elections, and the intention to carry out a debt swap to improve short-term maturities.
On the other hand, the arrival of dollars from soybean exports is expected to contribute to the reduction of country risk. Local markets and the dollar have been positively impacted by the agreement with the IMF and the elimination of currency controls, although the level of country risk remains a concern.
Regarding the international scenario, a possible stage of trade negotiations between the U.S. and China is anticipated, following Donald Trump's assaults. Despite the challenges, officials and investors are confident that the decline of country risk is only a matter of time, aided by various internal and external factors.
