In the recent financial analysis, it is highlighted that the main contractionary contribution comes from the balance when compared to the expansion generated by the acquisition of reserves in the Single and Free Exchange Market (MULC). It is observed that, in January, the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) made purchases of bonds exceeding 900 million dollars, which could indicate that they acquired more foreign currency bonds than they sold in pesos.
The growth of the Monetary Base deflated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) continued in January and February 2025, both on a monthly and year-on-year basis. Furthermore, it is still indicated that 20% of exports are settled outside the MULC, which generated a significant loss last year and is expected to continue in the same dynamic in 2025.
Regarding the 2025 dollar, there is a need to find solutions to avoid a risky devaluation, especially in the context of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Although there have been no indications of eliminating the blend dollar, its role in controlling the exchange rate gap has become relevant in these discussions.
The intervention of the BCRA in the MEP dollar market to supply credit card payments is highlighted, indicating a possible effort to contain the exchange rate gap. The volumes traded in bonds also show the relevant presence of the BCRA in parallel markets, which may influence future policies of the entity.
As for the current situation, doubts persist about how the agreement with the IMF will affect the monetary-exchange regime. The consultancy Outlier points out the uncertainty surrounding this issue and emphasizes the importance of observing how financial and exchange policies will evolve in the future.
In summary, the current financial analysis indicates a complex landscape, where the intervention of the BCRA in the markets and the need to find solutions to stabilize the economy dominate discussions. The elimination of the blend dollar, negotiations with the IMF, and policies to contain the exchange rate gap are key issues to be considered in the coming months.
