The director of Analytica, Claudio Caprarulo, projects that the surplus of $18.9 billion in the Argentine trade balance during 2024 will not be repeated this year. According to him, the decline in the positive balance will be mainly influenced by the decrease in the prices of raw materials exported from the country and the increase in imports expected for this year.
Despite expectations for an increase in export volumes in 2025, this would not be enough to offset the negative impact of falling commodity prices. The trade policies implemented by Donald Trump are also complicating Argentina’s situation, with additional tariffs affecting several countries, including China. This has led to trade tensions that influence international prices of products like oil.
Andrés Borenstein, chief economist at Econviews, highlights that Argentina currently exports about a third of its national oil production. The decline in international prices of this commodity affects the inflow of foreign currency into the country. This situation, combined with the drop in prices of other export products, anticipates a possible reduction in dollar income for the country through foreign trade in the coming months.
The international price of soybeans, Argentina's main export product, has experienced another drop in the Chicago market, far from its record levels three years ago. This scenario, influenced by the trade war initiated by Trump, affects Argentine exports and its economic situation in general.
Additionally, an energy surplus of $5 billion is expected for this year, despite an upward trend in imports. The decline in crude oil prices has also been notable in recent days, with Brent reaching its lowest level in several months. These combined factors present challenges for the Argentine economy in a context of global trade uncertainty.
