Local companies with Brazilian presence, such as MELI and LOMA, could be affected by recent events, but some analysts believe they also represent an opportunity. Following Javier Milei's speech on Saturday night, in which there were no major announcements, there is a sense of optimism regarding market developments, as he generally reaffirmed the direction taken by the Government.
In his address, Milei reiterated his commitment to lift the capital controls this year, which surprised Finance Minister Luis Caputo. Although Caputo expressed doubts about the feasibility of this promise, he indicated that he wishes to see it fulfilled. Furthermore, it was announced that the Government will soon send the agreement project with the IMF to Congress, a crucial step in the approval process, and it was confirmed that negotiations with the international organization are advanced.
The immediate reaction of the financial markets was positive: shares of Argentine companies in New York experienced an increase of up to 7.5%, while bonds showed a downward trend. Among the stocks with the highest gains were Transportadora de Gas del Sur, Grupo Supervielle, Grupo Financiero Galicia, and BBVA. Argentine bonds on Wall Street also recorded an increase of almost 3%, as did the globals, while the country risk remained at 780 points.
Analysts attribute this response to the clarity Milei offered in his speech regarding the government's plans in relation to the IMF and the lifting of capital controls. Additionally, the weakness of Mercosur is highlighted as a potential opportunity for Argentina in strategic export sectors. Awaiting updates related to the IMF, it is expected that this upward trend will continue at the start of the week.
With the local stock market closed for the carnival holiday, all attention is focused on Wall Street to assess the impact of Milei's speech. Some Argentine bonds, such as Bonar AL41, showed solid gains, followed by AL35 and AL30. The positive outlook is expected to remain, as long as no negative elements arise that could disrupt it.
