Bank of America (BofA) Global Research has published a detailed report forecasting the value of the dollar in Argentina for the current year. It is expected that, if certain conditions are met, the official dollar will reach $1400 in December. This would represent a 33% increase, which would entail a depreciation of the peso close to 25% throughout 2025.
The report also highlights that the National Government is negotiating with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to eliminate the dollar restrictions in 2025. A new agreement with the IMF is expected to be reached by April, which will eventually lead to the removal of currency restrictions in January 2026.
One of the central points of BofA's analysis is the removal of currency controls and capital controls under the administration of Javier Milei. It is anticipated that the currency unification will take place in December of this year, allowing for an accelerated depreciation of the currency after the elections.
The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) has reduced the peso's depreciation rate to 1% monthly in February, indicating a possible currency unification by the end of the year. It is projected that after the elections, there will be a quicker removal of capital controls and a transition to a more flexible currency regime.
BofA's projections for the exchange rate indicate that the official dollar will rise to $1070 in the first quarter of 2025, increase to $1170 in the second quarter, reach $1250 in the third, and close the year at $1400. These forecasts are based on the expectation that the country will reach a new agreement with the IMF in the coming months. A fiscal adjustment and a faster accumulation of international reserves, along with greater exchange rate flexibility, are expected.
