The Argentine economy has shown a year-on-year rebound of 5.5% in December, exceeding the expectations of private economists. This increase suggests a good performance for local financial assets and a potential reduction in country risk in the medium and long term.
In the realm of dollar-denominated sovereign debt, a moderately bullish tone was observed during Wednesday's session, following a series of downward corrections. Country risk marked 749 units, highlighting the stability of the financial market at that moment.
The Delphos Investment team believes that the prices of dollar-denominated sovereign bonds are already at appropriate levels and should not decline much further. They project that country risk, currently above 700 basis points, will compress below 600 units in the coming months.
According to analysis, Argentina stands out as the only country at its credit level that could achieve a financial surplus in 2024 and 2025. Furthermore, significant economic growth is forecasted in the coming years, with estimates suggesting a 5% GDP increase this year and an optimistic scenario for the third quarter.
Facimex Valores notes that the market shows optimism about the economic recovery in 2025, reflected in upward sector indicators and in the real monthly growth of the UTDT Leader Index. Regarding the current account, Argentina is expected to close the year with a positive balance, being one of the few countries at its scale to achieve this.
For the sovereign risk rate to decrease even further, it is considered necessary to eliminate the currency control through an agreement with the IMF and for the ruling party to achieve a strong victory in the upcoming elections.
