In February, long-term bonds have experienced declines of up to 1.4%, reflecting a downward trend in that segment. According to Adrián Yarde Buller, economist and chief strategist at Facimex Valores, the issuance of short-term bonds responds to the intention not to endorse higher interest rates. This decision is based on the increase in the yields of peso-denominated instruments, both in the fixed rate curve and in CER.
Regarding the fiscal situation, Yarde Buller points out that the Treasury is in a favorable moment, with significant liquidity, which would allow it not to fully roll over certain maturities and instead cancel them. Regarding the concentration of maturities before the elections, the analyst highlights that after the last peso debt swap, this is not an immediate concern.
The current Government strategy with peso debt has generated interest in the financial market. It is expected that the maturities will be distributed in such a way as not to generate significant pressures before mid-June. Analyst Christian Buteler believes that this strategy aims to increase the debt rollover rate without the need to offer high yields, with the goal of showing a decrease in interest rates and managing inflation expectations.
Buteler emphasizes the importance of generating confidence to prevent maturities from becoming a problem before the elections. He also mentions that the concentration of maturities may increase in the months leading up to the elections, something common in election years. The most significant maturities for the first half of the year correspond to Lecap S28F5 and bonds intended to integrate reserves, such as TG25. On the other hand, the Boncer zero coupon TZXY5 will mature in 91 days, which poses certain risks.
For its part, PPI emphasizes that the Treasury seeks to avoid high interest rates in the long fixed rate segment, which could reduce pressure in that segment. Among the bonds maturing in the short term, S31M5, S28A5, and S18J5 stand out, with maturities in 31, 59, and 110 days respectively.
