The acceleration in the demand for dollar credits by the private sector has led the total lent by banks to exceed $13 billion, the highest figure since October 2019. This has been an important factor in the Central Bank's purchases of reserves in the official currency market.
Since Javier Milei's arrival at the Casa Rosada, the dynamics of dollar credits have experienced a significant change, accelerating in recent months. Dollars from the amnesty have contributed to this surge, with banks offering more credits to exporters, the only ones authorized to access these loans.
So far this year, the stock of dollar credits has increased by 20%, equivalent to a growth of nearly $3 billion. This increase has led to net reserve purchases of $1.164 billion in February, similar to the growth of the private dollar credit stock.
Despite the downward trend in dollar deposits since early November, the demand for dollar credits by the private sector has continued to rise. While deposits decline, private dollar loans grow, creating a scenario where the Central Bank acquires foreign currency in the official market.
According to projections from Aurum Valores, if this trend continues, it is expected that the stock of dollar deposits will decrease and credits will increase, stimulating the Central Bank's foreign currency purchases. Dollar loans, despite being granted in pesos, continue to expand.
Banks must liquidate foreign currencies in the official market, facilitating the Central Bank's reserve purchases. Despite the low season for dollar liquidations from agriculture, the Central Bank has continued to acquire foreign currencies in the official market.
It is noted that since mid-August, when the amnesty regulation was implemented, the total lent has doubled, which has been fundamental in explaining the reserve purchases made by the Central Bank.
