According to the latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) from the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic, local and foreign specialists projected a monthly inflation of 2.3% for January and 23.2% for the entire year of 2025. This forecast represented a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous estimate.
In the same regard, inflation is expected to continue declining in the following months, both in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and in the Core CPI. Analysts participating in the REM forecast consecutive quarterly increases of 1% in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during the first half of the year, remaining unchanged compared to the previous report. For the total of 2025, they project an average real GDP growth of 4.6% compared to the previous year.
Regarding other economic indicators, the annual trade surplus is expected to decrease by USD 1.343 billion, while the unemployment rate would be at 7% for the last quarter of this year, with a slight reduction of 0.2 percentage points compared to previous projections.
As for the nominal exchange rate, the median of the forecasts was set at $1,055 per dollar for the average of February 2025, which would imply an average monthly increase of 1% in the exchange rate parity. REM analysts maintain that this pace of depreciation would continue throughout the analyzed period.
Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal surplus of the Non-Financial National Public Sector was set at $11.6 trillion for 2025, showing an increase of $0.5 trillion compared to the previous report. Participants in the study stated that none expect a primary deficit to be recorded for this year.
