The Blue Guru highlighted in its latest report that it is a favorable time to invest in pesos, taking advantage of the positive rates in dollars. According to its projections, the devaluation rate will be at 13.8% annually for the year 2025, which it considers a promising business. However, it warns that financing in pesos currently may pose a challenge for economic activity due to high rates.
The expert notes that, with a monetary policy rate of 32.0% annually and an expected devaluation of 13.8%, it is likely that the inflation rate will moderate to around 18.0% annually, as estimated by the Javier Milei government. In this context, the Blue Guru recommends investors to be cautious and to wait before making new decisions.
Regarding the capital market, the analyst emphasizes that the interest rate is positioned as the main obstacle to stock market growth. As long as rates remain high relative to inflation and devaluation, significant increases in sovereign bonds in dollars or stocks are not expected. It is also mentioned that, in the long term, a favorable economic scenario is anticipated for the government in the legislative elections of October 2025.
Salvador Di Stefano, a financial analyst, emphasizes the importance of valuing financial assets considering changes in economic policy. He highlights that, with a stable dollar and the reduction of the monthly devaluation rate by the Central Bank from 2.0% to 1.0%, it is crucial to strategically evaluate investment opportunities. He recommends avoiding speculation about a future devaluation of the cash dollar, as this could lead to losses.
In summary, Di Stefano warns about the influence of interest rates on the performance of financial markets and advises investors to remain alert to possible fluctuations. With a clear outlook on economic and financial policies, the best investment opportunities can be identified considering a long-term horizon. Everything indicates that, despite the current uncertainty, analysis and prudence are key to achieving optimal returns in the market.
