Politics Economy Country 2026-03-14T16:51:18+00:00

Political and Economic Consequences of Global Conflicts

Analysis of the current geopolitical situation, including the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, their impact on the global economy and politics, as well as the internal problems of the Argentine government.


Political and Economic Consequences of Global Conflicts

President, in the middle of his successful Argentina Week, made the huge blunder of ranting against the 'empresaurios' (as he calls them) who own Techint and Fate-Aluar; certainly, those who listened knew the details of this confrontation, but it was neither the time nor the place to expose it. While it may be true that the bombings have completely destroyed the Iranian navy and air force, this war is not only not over but is continuing to escalate, as proven by the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz (with its impressive and predictable impact on global inflation due to rising energy and fertilizer prices), yesterday's massive missile attack on Israel, and the impacts that military bases, oil installations, aquifers, and even financial centers in all Gulf countries are receiving, not to mention the occasional ones in Azerbaijan, Cyprus, and Turkey. If one sought to conquer Iran territorially, the Pentagon would be forced, as it did yesterday with a complete division of the Marine Corps that was in Japan, to send infantry troops, hundreds of thousands of soldiers, something that Americans mostly reject. If one wanted to resort to internal chaos to try to bring down the regime through the use of militias like the Kurds — not to annoy Recep Erdoğan, who suffers from them in 30% of Turkey's territory — what would certainly be obtained is the conversion of Iran into a failed state, as are already Libya, Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria. It also seems unlikely that a Delcy Rodríguez can be found to replace the new supreme leader, Mojtabá Khamenei, since support for the ayatollahs has been galvanized into popular support, as always happens when a country is at war; this is confirmed by Benjamin Netanyahu, who does not hesitate to prolong operations in Gaza and Lebanon so as not to be impeached and imprisoned by Israeli Justice, something now guaranteed by the refusal of President Isaac Herzog to grant the pardon that Trump has repeatedly requested for his great 'friend'. Panic seized Washington and Brussels at the danger of energy supply cuts just before the boreal winter. If we add that on Wednesday the Department of War had to recognize that, in the first six days of war alone, the USA had spent US$ 11 billion, that is, US$ 2 billion daily, in an unpopular war, any concern in this regard is justified. By Enrique Guillermo Avogadro. 'He has all the virtues I don't like and none of the vices I admire'. Winston Churchill. Wars are always fought on several fronts: the strictly military, the geopolitical (regional and global), the global economic, and, of course, public opinion. Faced with that terrifying panorama, the President of the USA had no better idea (after announcing that huge strategic reserves of oil from his country and Europe were being released) than to temporarily lift sanctions on Russia and authorize buying fuel from his enemy, Vladimir Putin, who maintains a 'ghost' fleet with 100 million barrels (according to Dimitrii Medvedev), and who now, due to the scarcity, can get better prices and extra financing for his invasion of Ukraine. Trump has (November) the midterm elections, and the conflict is increasing gasoline and food prices, that is, it is punishing his own voters. With good reason, all belligerent countries invoke 'national security' to censor traditional press media; but, in search of immediate information, today we resort to social networks in which, in many cases, the 'news' is contaminated to hide or falsify the truth. Donald Trump is enough to confuse everyone. When their own dead, who already far exceed the official figures (7 soldiers), begin to return in black bags, the probability that he will lose the current control he exerts in both chambers of the Capitol will increase dramatically. In the patio of the Argentine conventillo, Javier Milei insists on shooting himself in the feet, forgetting the famous comment by Charles de Talleyrand to Napoleon: 'in politics, crimes are forgiven, mistakes are not'. Manuel Adorni, his Chief of Staff, made his own contribution to the important collection of unforced errors with the affair of his wife's trip to the USA on the presidential plane; obviously, it is a minor issue, especially if we remember the monumental thefts of kirchnerismo, but it is a huge stumble for a President who, on the 1st of this month, when inaugurating the ordinary sessions period of the 'Holding House', announced that Morality would be the banner of his management. Since he launched the 'Epic Fury' operation, he has successively put forward different arguments — often contradictory — to justify the attack: defending the civilian population from the brutality of the security forces, ending with the same nuclear program that he said last year had been completely destroyed, beheading the ayatollah regime, reproducing what was done in Venezuela led by some member of the system for a transition period, or turning Iran into a desert to definitively end the terrorist danger it represents for its neighbors and the world in general; this very week, he said that the war is practically over. But the reality seems to be very different.