A national poll conducted by the polling firm Opinaia, considered close to the national government, has revealed a solid electoral ceiling for the 'La Libertad Avanza' (LLA) party, while other political spaces show serious limitations in expanding their support base. The nationwide survey measured the so-called 'electoral floors and ceilings' of the main political spaces, a key indicator in systems with runoff voting like Argentina's. LLA shows a strong electoral ceiling, while the rest of the political forces exhibit serious limitations in expanding their base of support. The poll indicates that LLA combines a core of firm support with a relatively low level of rejection by Argentine standards, positioning it advantageously in a potential runoff. Two years later, far from dissipating, this public discontent remains active and could even be deepening, the survey suggests. Opinaia's work was based on 1,000 cases surveyed between January 15 and 19, with an estimated margin of error of ±3%. Among the main general conclusions, the study points out that structural problems continue to top the citizens' agenda: poverty appears as the main concern (56%), followed by unemployment (52%). In contrast, Kirchnerist Peronism faces a low ceiling and a very high rejection rate, a combination that hinders any electoral growth strategy. 'Provincias Unidas', the coalition of moderate governors and former governors, shows slightly lower rejection but an extremely reduced secure vote, limiting its real competitiveness. The 'Frente de Izquierda' (FIT), meanwhile, records the highest level of rejection in the political system and the lowest ceiling, relegating it to a testimonial role. Overall, the data reinforces a trend that runs through recent electoral processes: the fragmentation of the opposition and the high rejection of traditional forces continue to be one of the main assets of the libertarian ruling party in a scenario marked by polarization and structural distrust of politics, two years before the next presidential election. In the economic sphere, the report detects an ambivalent climate. There, a striking data stands out: 65% of those surveyed stated that they would 'never vote' for Kirchnerist Peronism, a level of rejection that, comparatively, leaves it virtually out of any runoff scenario unless it faces a force with an even greater rejection. In terms of political leadership, the study shows stability in the presidential image. Milei has a positive image of 53%, with a two-point increase from the previous measurement. In the opposition, leadership appears fragmented: Cristina Fernández de Kirchner registers a 31% positive image and Axel Kicillof 30%, with no figures emerging capable of breaking through the high levels of rejection. Where the report is most categorical is in the electoral scenario projected for 2027.
