The Argentine stock market has experienced an impressive rally during the year 2024, reaching historical levels. The S&P Merval in dollars (CCL) has even surpassed the peaks seen at the highest point during Mauricio Macri's presidency. Adjusted for U.S. inflation, this index stands at levels of $2,288 points. So far this year, the S&P Merval (CCL) has increased by 90%, thus showing a remarkable performance compared to other stock markets worldwide.
Argentine investors have been motivated by local macroeconomic improvements and the bullish performance on Wall Street. Additionally, the favorable international context has contributed to the momentum of the Argentine stock market, which has managed to generate significant returns throughout 2024. Analysts highlight that the global market continues to be influenced by the 'Trump Trade', favoring both equity markets and Bitcoin.
On the other hand, Argentine sovereign debt has shown notable compression, bringing country risk levels below 800 points. Ignacio Sniechowski, head of research at Grupo IEB, pointed out that three key variables continue to favor the bullish potential of the local market. He also highlighted the good performance of stocks on Wall Street, which have reached new highs, and the 'delivery' factor, which, although difficult to measure, is crucial for investors.
Regarding investment positioning, some caution is suggested towards banks, which have experienced significant increases, and the energy sector is considered more attractive. Among the stocks that have shown the highest performance are BBVA Argentina, Grupo Financiero Galicia, Banco Macro, and Grupo Supervielle. However, it is advisable to diversify portfolio positions and look for more conservative stocks given the current landscape of the Argentine market.
The collapse of country risk has contributed to an increase in the value of local companies, leading to a rally in Argentine equities. Analysts view the future with caution and suggest rotating towards more solid assets. Despite the optimism in the market, the importance of asset selection and maintaining a long-term strategic vision is emphasized.
