The economic team has begun to project an optimistic scenario for the Argentine economy in 2025. It is estimated that the exchange rate will experience a decline and converge around 1,100 pesos at the beginning of that year. Furthermore, they anticipate growth above 5%, exceeding initial expectations. According to Milei's calculations, the cost of living could be around 2% in November and drop to 1% in January through the gradual elimination of the crawling peg.
The success of the capital amnesty has allowed over 23 billion dollars to enter the country, which has helped contain monetary issuance without the need to flood excess pesos into the market to acquire foreign currency. It is noteworthy that credit levels have doubled and there is room for further growth. A smaller drop in Gross Product is projected for this year, approaching 2%, despite recent economic difficulties.
Despite the progress, authorities are aware that they still need to recover the credibility lost over the years. The possibility of lifting the currency controls in the near future is being considered, conditioned on not generating problems in the economy. The improvement in economic conditions, a financial surplus in November, and exchange rate stability are factors that pave the way for the elimination of currency restrictions.
The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, emphasizes that the government will continue to send clear signals to the markets and highlights that the implemented transformations will be permanent, with the goal of eliminating the fiscal deficit and monetary issuance. Investments are expected to increase, which could drive economic growth of 6%. Caputo assures that the risk of a currency crisis has been eliminated and emphasizes the victory against inflation, which has decreased to 2.7% in October.
To maintain the declining trend of inflation, measures have been implemented to encourage imports and limit inflationary pressures. The expectation is that the next INDEC measurements will be around 2%. Despite significant debt maturities, there is an increase in reserves and a decrease in requests to lift the currency controls.
All of this is part of a scenario where the dollar is expected to converge towards 1,150 pesos if the currency controls are lifted. The official projection places the dollar at 1,175 for the first quarter of 2025, pointing towards a gradual currency unification. Experts predict that, once restrictions are removed, the dollar price will stabilize at values close to the cash value with settlement. With these encouraging prospects, efforts will focus on further strengthening the economy and continuing to advance structural reforms that promote sustained growth.
