Since October 1st, only USD 715 million were withdrawn from the USD 12.781 billion deposited between August 15 and September 30, suggesting that dollar loans could continue to rise. During Macri's administration, when private sector dollar deposits reached USD 32.411 billion before the 2019 primaries, compared to the current USD 30.528 billion, the ratio was at 50.3%.
According to Portfolio Personal Inversions, the loan/private dollar deposit ratio remains low, at 24.9%. Loans to the private sector increased by USD 1.1 billion, reaching USD 7.7 billion. This has caused system liquidity to rise, from 65% in mid-August to over 75% currently, remaining less than five percentage points from the maximum of 80% at the end of 2022.
Banco Provincia highlights that the amnesty has led to a significant increase in dollar deposits, which could result in greater financing in this currency and, therefore, a greater supply of bills in the alternative dollar market. Private deposits have grown by more than 60% in the last two months, while reserves have only grown by 20%.
One of the most notable effects of the amnesty has been that dollar deposits have surpassed the gross reserves of the Central Bank for the first time. Cash dollar deposits increased by approximately USD 12 billion in the last two months, but banks have yet to transfer these bills to the Central Bank.
Private sector cash dollar deposits slightly decreased in October, and after the period established by the amnesty, if savers do not withdraw their holdings and banks do not place them in loans, gross reserves could increase. As of October 17, foreign currency deposits amounted to USD 30.683 billion.
Banco Provincia estimates that the amnesty could contribute up to USD 8 billion to the reserves through reserves or net loans. Juan Manuel Franco, Chief Economist of Grupo SBS, emphasizes that it is crucial for reserves to continue improving and that net reserves could withstand pressures due to current exchange rate policies.
The increase in private sector deposits in foreign currency could strengthen gross reserves through reserves and loans to the private sector, as long as certain favorable macroeconomic conditions are maintained. Analysts predict that the dollar will devalue by 21.8% annually in 2025 and end the year at around $1,250, while commercial banks continue to transfer their surplus cash in dollars to the monetary authority.
