In the last 30 years, the gains achieved in September have been seen only once every ten months, according to GMACapital. In the peso market, Lecaps are offering 3.6% monthly, equivalent to 45% annual nominal rate, surpassing inflation. There is speculation about whether the government could surprise with low inflation in October, with predictions suggesting an index close to 3%.
The implied inflation until October 2025 is calculated from the bidding of the new Boncap to December 2025, currently averaging 2.5% for the first four months and 2.25% for the period from May to October. Investors rely on a decrease in inflation and bet on Boncap for December 2025 with rates of 3.6% monthly, equivalent to 55% of TNA.
There is talk in the market about the possibility that the Treasury may lower Lecap rates in the upcoming auctions, while the CER closed the week with TIRs of CER+12% starting from the 2026 tranche, indicating higher demand for fixed-rate assets in pesos. Banks are facing a decrease in their liquidity, with 54% of deposits compared to the previous 80%, which may lead them to use Lefis or not renew Treasury Lecaps.
Analysts like Fernando Marull point out that the current rally is due to a good global context, increased laundering, and a more positive market for 2025 in terms of financing. From IEB Research, the compression of long Lecaps and Boncaps is highlighted after the September inflation stood at 3.5%.
In case of expecting a decrease in prices, they suggest positioning in the long tranche of Lecaps; otherwise, they recommend a more defensive position with short or medium-term Bills. The Lecap curve continues to present value, mainly in the long tranche with a rate of 3.6% TEM. For the future, a decrease in inflation and an investment in the long tranche of the curve is expected. October follows the same positive trend in yields, which have been among the best in the last two decades, boosting the carry trade.
