From a strategic perspective, betting on the energy transition is the most logical step; otherwise, energy security will remain tied to the vicissitudes of geopolitical disputes. In this context, Latin American countries should consider that continuing to exploit hydrocarbons will increase financial risk, as oil projects under construction may eventually fail to pay for themselves. If the conflict drags on, the rise in fuel prices could be even more pronounced, leading to a new wave of global inflation. In contrast to the bleak picture faced by producers in the Middle East, oil and gas exporters could benefit from the conflict. For Asia-Pacific countries, the conflict not only means higher prices; disruptions in contracts are forcing a reevaluation of energy security issues, as its prolongation carries strong risks of supply shortages. The situation also exposes the vulnerability that the European Union still shows in terms of energy. It is enough to observe the case of Venezuela. But security does not necessarily have to be associated with the fate of the oil complex. The strong dependence that comes from the use of fossil fuels was also highlighted, an aspect that links energy supply with geopolitics. The escalation of the conflict and the Iranian threat over the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically important point for world oil trade, has paralyzed maritime traffic in the region. The invasion of Ukraine forced a rethinking of the heavy dependence these countries maintained on Russian gas, and from then on, the region decided to embark on a strategy of supply diversification and acceleration of the transformation of the energy matrix. Although in recent years the European Union has made strong investments in renewable energy, the urgency imposed by the need to replace hydrocarbons coming from Russia led European authorities to seek alternative supply sources. In Argentina, Southern Energy (a consortium made up of YPF, Pan American Energy, Pampa Energía, Harbour Energy and Golar LNG) has just signed a contract to supply liquefied natural gas to the German company SEFE. The rise in oil prices has a positive effect on the external front, an improvement that could mean an additional $1,300 to $1,700 million per year for the Milei government. The current moment, in definitively, poses fundamental questions for us: do we remain tied to oil—whose demand is not guaranteed and worsens the climate problem—or do we bet on renewables to gain autonomy and begin to reverse the rise in the planet's temperature. The author is a teacher, a specialist in economics and finance. Observing the current context, the British Secretary of State for Energy, Ed Miliband, emphasized the importance of moving forward with the transition as the only route to ensure energy supply and guarantee that these decisions are made sovereignly. Identical comments have been heard in various centers of power in Asia, a region where the conflict is beginning to be considered as a turning point in terms of energy security. So-called energy security continues to generate tensions and frame disputes that affect the sovereignty of producers themselves. The military offensive launched by the United States and Israel against Iran is having repercussions in the energy sphere, with strong effects on the future configuration of the market. Green energy expands the decision-making space of the sovereign. This is the interpretation that importing countries are making, which are now evaluating the cost of depending on traditional energy sources. But the partners ended up being unreliable or became involved in conflicts. Even if they can add new partners, it would be logical for Europe and Asia to reinforce their bet on renewables. Every kilowatt coming from renewable sources represents greater strategic autonomy. With falling prices, continuous technological improvements, and greater strategic autonomy, betting on renewables implies a safe option for those countries seeking to minimize their exposure to risk. Supply from clean sources generates no dependence, as no country controls the intensity of the sun or the speed of the wind. However, this enthusiasm should not influence the evaluation of new investments, as these should also consider the decisions that (current or potential) buyers make. The dispute in the Middle East not only brought more uncertainty to the markets. In addition, Iranian attacks on refineries in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar directly affect the supply. Furthermore, a project for the Southern Gas Pipeline (TGS) has recently been presented, which would involve an investment of $3,000 million, with expected annual revenues exceeding $1,200 million. These benefits highlight the growing relevance of the Vaca Muerta field, which allows the country to obtain dollars after the outflow of foreign exchange that each oil price increase implied in the past.
