Argentina recorded a trade surplus of USD 788 million in the second month of the year, less than expected by the market (USD 984 million). According to the Argentine News Agency, this figure not only means that the country has accumulated 27 consecutive months of a positive trade balance but also represents a significant improvement compared to the same month last year (USD +275 M), according to the consultancy Abeceb. In the accumulated first two months, the trade balance totaled USD 2.977 billion, better than the USD 438 billion in the same period of 2025. The larger trade surplus in February was due to the fact that export values fell (-2.9% yoy) but less than the value of imports (-11.8%). This marks two consecutive months of a decline in foreign purchases close to 12% annually (in January, it was 12.1% y.o.y). The decrease in both exported and imported values was due to the fall in quantities (-7.1% y/y and -14.9% y/y respectively), as the prices for both sales and external purchases rose by around 4%. Key to the February surplus were the strong performance of wheat exports (+60% yoy), gold (+80% yoy), and, to a lesser extent, lithium (+125%). The soybean sector, although with a favorable balance, reduced its contribution due to a 30.4% drop in exports. Something similar happened in the fuel sector, which had a positive trade balance of USD 379 million but lower than in the same month of the previous year. What happened with exports? Export values totaled USD 5.962 billion and fell 2.9% year-on-year in February 2026), its first drop since May 2025. Intermediate goods also fell (4.1%), and unlike in January, in February, Consumer Goods imports also fell by 3.0% in value. Both factors would have significantly reduced the operational pace and, consequently, exports. Meanwhile, the export value in Fuels and Energy also decreased (-27.6%); in a context of falling international prices (before the outbreak of the Iran-USA war. If the Israel-Iran conflict extends in time, it could expand the energy surplus, resulting in a larger aggregate trade balance. If the conflict drags on, the weakening of the global economy could moderate the growth of other exports, dampening part of the positive effect of the increase in energy exports.
