In the midst of the high volatility affecting the international energy market due to the war in the Middle East, the president and CEO of YPF, Horacio Marín, stated that the state-owned oil company will seek to avoid sharp increases in fuel prices in Argentina, even as the price of oil registers one of its biggest increases in recent years. The executive affirmed that the company will apply its micropricing scheme and the 'moving average' price mechanism to cushion external volatility and prevent abrupt movements in international crude from being immediately passed on to local gas pumps. 'YPF will not cause jolts in fuel prices. If the crude increase is quickly reversed, the moving average mechanism applied by YPF could avoid significant adjustments at the pumps. In contrast, if Brent remains at three-digit levels for several weeks, pressure on internal prices could intensify, even with a policy of gradual adjustments. Various energy sector specialists estimate that in a scenario of oil sustained above $100, fuels in Argentina could face accumulated increases of up to 10% in the coming months, depending on the evolution of the global market and the commercial strategy adopted by refiners. For now, the state-owned oil company seeks to send a signal of caution. Marín did not deny the impact that the international scenario may have, but made it clear that the company will attempt to cushion the effects in the domestic market. In an economy where the price of gasoline acts as a key indicator of expectations, costs, and inflation, YPF's promise represents an attempt to maintain a certain degree of stability amidst an increasingly uncertain global energy landscape. The behavior of fuel prices has direct effects on transportation, logistics, business costs, and inflation, so any jump in gasoline or diesel prices tends to quickly be passed on to the economy. Facing this scenario, YPF seeks to introduce a stabilizing factor. However, internal fuel prices remain partially linked to the behavior of the international market. That is why analysts point out that the effect of the current oil shock will depend largely on its duration. 'We are prudent and are honoring our honest commitment to consumers,' stated Marín, in a message that aims to convey predictability in a market particularly sensitive to the Argentine economy. The decision comes at a time of high tension in the global energy market. The micropricing scheme mentioned by Marín involves the permanent monitoring of the variables that affect fuels—such as the international price of crude, the exchange rate, taxes, and refining costs—to adjust prices gradually and avoid sharp jumps. The moving average system, in turn, functions as a cushioning tool. The development of Vaca Muerta, one of the world's largest non-conventional hydrocarbon reservoirs, strengthened the country's energy capacity and allowed for an increase in oil and gas production. Instead of immediately passing on a sudden oil price increase to gas pumps, the company takes an average of crude oil quotations over a determined period. Any disruption in that maritime route immediately impacts international crude oil prices. In this context, concern in Argentina is not limited to geopolitics. The war in the Middle East has revived fears of a new oil crisis and led analysts to recall previous episodes where geopolitical conflicts drove up the price of crude. In 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the barrel surpassed $120, generating a strong inflationary impact in numerous countries. In Argentina, the situation has particular nuances. The Brent barrel, the international benchmark, again surpassed $100 for the first time since 2022 and reached close to $118-$120 in the week's opening, driven by the military escalation between the United States, Israel, and Iran. The increase reflects the market's fear of possible disruptions in the global oil supply, especially due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route through which nearly 20% of global oil trade passes.
