At the start of February, the rise in meat prices began to complicate the government's strategy to contain inflation and sustain the slowdown in the price index, in a month that was already overloaded with regulated adjustments and controversy surrounding the postponement of the new CPI. The consequences are twofold: the food basket is overheating, and due to the cultural and statistical weight of meat in Argentine consumption, its ability to pull the general index higher increases. In the LCG consultancy, they warned that in the second week of February, 'Food and Beverages' registered a 1% weekly variation, and that nearly 70% of that increase was explained by the jump in 'Meats', with an advance close to 2.3% weekly, while vegetables partially offset the impact. In the same vein, Claudio Caprar noted that meat is once again setting the pace, and despite the acceleration in non-alcoholic beverages, they for now maintain the forecast of an inflation rate similar to that of January. Camilo Tiscornia, of C&T Economic Advisors, estimated that meat had already accumulated an increase of close to 5% in what had been the month so far. The phenomenon coincides with wholesale signals. If meat remains the spearhead in February, that truce can be broken and it can regain traction for the component that the ruling party needs to cool to consolidate the trend. In the analysis of factors, livestock sector specialists point to a medium-term combination: lower stock, climate restrictions, and changes in incentives. Miguel Schiaritti attributed part of the tension to the destruction of livestock stock that would be dragging on from policies of the Kirchner era, associated with Guillermo Moreno with the backing of Cristina Kirchner, and later to shocks from droughts and floods that tightened supply. The consultancy added that this behavior was aligned with the dynamics previously observed in the wholesale segment, anticipating the pass-through to retail prices; chicken, on the other hand, showed setbacks after leading increases in January, and cold cuts and fish moved with more moderate increases. For the government, the problem is that meat is at the core of inflation. For the government, sustaining low inflation requires preventing the asado from becoming a thermometer of failure again: in Argentina, when meat prices rise, so does the perception that everything is getting more expensive. The expansion of the meat export quota to the United States is being observed by the market as an additional incentive. Other readings downplay the impact due to the scale of the business: Argentina produces about 3 million tons, consumes around 2 million in the domestic market, and exports between 20% and 25%, with China influencing prices and destinations since 2023. To this pressure is added a sensitive statistical and political climate. In the background, Minister Luis Caputo argued that the change could distort comparisons in a year in which regulated tariffs and services would rise above inflation, which opens a methodological dispute that coexists with a more tangible fact: if meat heats up again, the food basket becomes the main social and political headache. Private projections already place February near 3% monthly—driven by tariffs, transportation, and food—the evolution of meat prices is shaping up as one of the determinants of the final figure. In EcoGo, the consultancy led by Marina Dal Poggetto, they measured a 2.5% weekly acceleration in meats in the second week of February, with beef leading the movement due to lower supply. Private surveys detected an acceleration in 'Food and Beverages,' with meat as the main driver, a movement that adds pressure on the core sector—where the ruling party had been showing signs of relief—and threatens to stall the statistical improvement on the eve of a key data point. January's data had already set off alarms: the price of a kilogram of asado rose 5.6% and left its real price at highs since at least 2016, using the INDEC series with outdated weights. In January, the general index accelerated for the fifth consecutive time, although core inflation had shown signs of deceleration. It was also noted that the rise can be read as a 'recovery' in a context where for years meat may have run below the CPI, favored by productivity gains and by the competition of chicken and pork. The external front adds noise. In February, the dynamics did not stop and intensified in high-demand cuts like skirt steak, according to estimates collected by consultancies and retail market analysts. The discussion over the 'new CPI'—based on a more recent household expenditure survey—was at the center of the debate after the government postponed its implementation. EcoGo and other consultancies clarified that for the moment, they maintain the current weights linked to the previous structure, while running alternative calculations with the newest methodology. For some analysts, greater export prospects could alter the livestock cycle in a context of tight supply: in the face of better expected prices, producers retain breeding stock to increase future production, reducing immediate supply and pressuring values. The Cañuelas Agro-livestock Market showed increases in different categories, and sector operators have been registering firmness in cattle values, with transfers that end up impacting the retail shelf. In Analytica, the team led by Ricardo Delgado, described that 'the second week of the month peaked' and located the biggest jump since early December, with 'Meats and derivatives' rising around 3% weekly; their monthly forecast for February is around 2.8%.
