January surprised the markets with a sharp drop in the country risk indicator, which fell below the 500-point mark — a level not seen since 2018. Additionally, Argentine assets closed with solid gains, driven by currency purchases made by the Central Bank (BCRA) and a more favorable international context for emerging markets and commodities. The rise in public bond prices pushed the risk down to a level that brings it very close to a possible sovereign debt issuance under New York law. Even so, in the last session of the month, the country risk rebounded slightly to 496 basis points, in a context of declines in dollar-denominated sovereign bonds on Wall Street. At the stock market level, the S&P Merval fell 0.4% to 3,199,554 points, although it advanced 1.1% in dollars and closed around 2,142 points, reflecting the impact of the fall in the CCL (-1% to $1,493.58). The biggest declines of the day were for Transportadora de Gas del Norte (-2.8%), Cresud (-1.9%) and Edenor (-1%), while the gains were led by Transener (+2.5%), Pampa Energía (+1.9%) and YPF (+1%). In the monthly balance, the leading index gained 4.8% in pesos and 6.7% measured in CCL dollars. Within the main panel, the biggest gains in January were for Telecom (+15.7%), BYMA (+15.5%) and Banco Macro (+12.7%). On Wall Street, Argentine ADRs closed with widespread declines in an adverse international climate. The most pronounced falls were for IRSA (-5.5%), Ternium (-4.9%) and Loma Negra (-4%). Even so, for the month as a whole, Telecom (+16.1%), Tenaris (+15.3%) and Corporación América (+12.7%) stood out. Dollar-denominated sovereign bonds operated with a majority of declines in the last session, led by Global 2046 (-1.4%), Global 2035 (-0.6%) and Bonar 2029 (-0.5%). Despite this, January brought increases of up to 5.4%, as was the case with Global 2041.
