The World Bank forecasts a 4% growth for Argentina in 2026, indicating a moderation compared to the improvement in activity last year, which was calculated at 4.6%. The forecast comes from the January edition of the Global Economic Prospects report, in which the entity specified that “Argentina's growth is projected to moderate to 4% in 2026” and remain at 4% in 2027, according to the Argentine News Agency. To explain the moderation in growth, the World Bank stated that “uncertainty in domestic policy at the end of last year caused episodes of exchange rate pressure, which led to increases in market interest rates that are expected to cool domestic demand and growth this year”. In this context, it emphasized that “the support from the United States, including the provision of swap lines, helped stabilize financial conditions” and added that “the transition to a crawling band in April 2025 will increase exchange rate flexibility, strengthening its role as a shock absorber”. Despite the slower progress expected for the current period, the report states that Argentina is among the top three countries in the region that will grow the most in 2026, only behind Panama (4.1%) and the Dominican Republic (4.5%). Globally, the World Bank highlighted that the global economy “is proving to be more resilient than expected, despite persistent trade tensions and uncertainty around policies”. In this sense, it forecasts that global growth will remain stable over the next two years, with a slight drop to 2.6% in 2026 before increasing to 2.7% in 2027, “which constitutes an upward revision from the June forecast”. Against this backdrop, Indermit Gill, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Development Economics at the World Bank Group, stated that “each year that passes, the global economy shows less ability to generate growth and apparently more resilience to policy uncertainty”. However, he warned that “economic dynamism and resilience cannot go down separate paths for long without causing damage to credit markets and public finances” and posited that “in the coming years, the global economy will grow at a slower pace than in the tumultuous 1990s, while maintaining unprecedented levels of public and private debt”. In this framework, he indicated that “to avoid stagnation and unemployment, the Governments of emerging and advanced economies must vigorously liberalize private investment and trade, curb public consumption, and invest in new technologies and education”.
