Argentina's November Inflation Rate Stands at 2.5%

November's inflation rate was 2.5%, reported this Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC). To achieve this, December's data needed to be 2.4%. However, consulting firms and financial institutions participating in the Market Expectations Survey (REM), conducted monthly by the Central Bank, anticipated it would be 2.1%. In this sense, they expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to resume a downward trend by year-end. Notable in this regard were increases in electricity tariffs of 3.6% in the AMBA (Greater Buenos Aires) area and a 3.8% national increase in gas prices, as well as price hikes of up to 7% at gas pumps. At the other end, the two categories with the smallest increases were household equipment and maintenance, at 1.1%, and clothing and footwear, at 0.5%, influenced by post-sales discounts. Meanwhile, food and non-alcoholic beverages—which account for 27% of the national CPI—rose by 2.8%, above the general price level and October's figure of 2.3%. Prior to the official data release, private analysts predicted the CPI would again exceed 2%, in a range of 2.3% to 2.6%. Looking ahead to the end of the year, economists estimate that 2025 will close with inflation close to 31%, the lowest variation since the 24.8% recorded in 2017. In this regard, the latest REM survey projected that the monthly figure will return to a descending path starting in January, reaching 4.8% by April. Typically, December and January are months of higher inflation due to the seasonality of summer vacations, so it will be especially important to follow the evolution of core inflation to get a gauge of early 2026. This was the highest level in the last seven months, since the 2.8% mark in April. In this way, according to the statistical agency, the CPI accumulated an increase of 27.9% in the first 11 months of the year, while the year-on-year variation was 31.4%. Despite price drops in some categories due to Cyber Week—the online discount week that extended Cyber Monday—the impact of regulated services was felt, with tariffs registering increases as in recent months, and of meat, which saw a rise greater than the typical seasonal increase for this time of year. Thus, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a slight acceleration last month, continuing the upward curve that began in May, when the figure was 1.5%, rose to 1.6% in June, climbed to 1.9% in July and August, increased to 2.1% in September, and jumped to 2.3% in October. Meanwhile, core inflation—an indicator that measures price evolution without seasonal effects and excludes regulated items—was 2.6%, an acceleration of 0.4 points compared to October's value of 2.2%. The category with the highest monthly increase was housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, which rose by 3.4%.