At the start of the third week of November, projections for Argentina's country risk index show a positive trend in the 600-point range, though the situation remains fragile and dependent on political stability and key economic reforms. The current country risk level is around 600–620 basis points (bp), the lowest since January 2025, having surpassed 1,000 bp before the elections. Analysts expect that if the government maintains fiscal discipline and advances in reforms, such as the 2026 budget and changes to labor and tax laws, the country risk could approach the 500–550 bp range by 2026 and even decrease. The key condition to regain access to international credit and 'reopen the market' is to keep the country risk persistently below 600 bp and, preferably, stabilize it below 500 bp. Staying in this range for several months would be seen as an 'excellent opportunity' for stable external financing. In the event of political setbacks or international volatility, the risk could again surpass 700–800 bp, which would make financing more expensive for the state and companies. Moderately positive expectations are sustained in the short term.
