**Short Summary:**
JP Morgan analysts and local experts point to the improvement of the economic situation in Argentina after the victory of the coalition of libertarian parties in the presidential elections. Experts predict a decline in risk premiums, an increase in investment inflows and stabilization of the financial market, which contributes to the political stability of the country.
**Forecast Details:**
The bank predicts, that "the best time for Argentine bonds, resulting from the recent social unrest, is not over yet — rates may go into a deeper period of decline". As a result, the result is a long-term decline in the value of the peso. At the same time, the "result of the choice of the more balanced policy, which corresponds to the fiscal discipline with the required adjustments". According to analysts, this supports a long-term attractive position.
According to JP Morgan, "the average price of Argentine bonds to the end of the year may fall by 650 basis points, which will bring them to the initial level of 2025". At this credit rating, the country may rise to the level of Pakistan or Egypt, which will make the investments in Argentine bonds more attractive. Experts add, that "by 2035, the cost of obligations will reach 11.4%, increasing their value to $9".
**Role of External Factors:**
The support of the IMF, the administration of Trump, is considered as a key factor, which "gives time for the introduction of changes, especially if the real exchange rate falls, which may lead to the introduction of capital controls". This, in turn, will allow to increase the monetary policy.
**Opinion of Local Specialists:**
Gustavo Arroyo, head of the company Criteria, believes, that "high inflation (only the recent decline in the interest rate) and the strict choice of the formation of the political stability". According to him, "the optimization of the risks: the sovereign debt was paid off, and the banking sector showed a clear growth".
Arroyo also predicts: "Investors need to implement the reforms, not the forecasts and the reforms". Three priorities, which will be determined later, — this is "the management of the monetary system, the creation of new reserves and the structural reforms".
**Economic Perspectives:**
After the period of stagnation analysts see "the growth of the economic activity and the decline in inflation". The increase in the risk premium, according to JP Morgan, may begin to "cycle of the increased investment in the Argentine market", especially if the support of the IMF and the measures for the stabilization of the currency are maintained.
**Conclusion:**
Here is a high risk of political and value decisions, combined effect of the choice of elections, external support and internal reforms allows to hope for the positive scenarios for Argentina in the near future.
