The rating agency Moody's praises the advances in Javier Milei's economic program and considers the recent exit from currency controls in Argentina to be "successful." Despite this, Moody's is cautious about upgrading the country's debt rating, emphasizing that improvements will be gradual. In February, the rating rose from CAA3 to CAA1, but Argentina remains at high-risk levels, with a CA rating since 2019.
Jaime Reusche, vice president of Moody's, acknowledges that the early exit from currency controls changes the landscape, but warns of the risks of mismatches in monetary and exchange rate policies. Although there have been no significant fluctuations in the exchange rate or macroeconomic conditions so far, Moody's warns about risks in the global context and the need to balance the trade deficit.
Moody's highlights that economic growth may increase the demand for imports, which could affect exchange rate stability in the future. Additionally, it notes that foreign currency flows from the IMF and international organizations could balance the trade deficit until mid-year, but a reversal in the balance is expected after July.
The vice president of Moody's emphasizes the importance of the Central Bank maintaining a cautious approach to reserve purchases and exchange rate interventions, favoring the implementation of economic reforms to attract real investment and ensure long-term financial stability.
