A report from the Department of Economics and Social Sciences of ESEADE highlighted that markets continue to support the current economic data of Argentina, despite the media impact of Criptogate$LIBRA. According to the analysis, the crisis is beginning to be left behind, while key economic indicators show a positive trend.
In January, the Treasury achieved a financial surplus of 0.07% of GDP, reaffirming confidence in economic policy and compliance with established fiscal targets. Inflation during January was 2.2%, the lowest so far in the current administration. Likewise, core inflation decreased from 3.2% to 2.4%. Although there could be occasional increases due to the impact of meat and education, inflation is expected to remain at similar levels in the coming months, thanks to a zero-emission strategy and exchange rate control.
Regarding economic activity, a growth of 0.5% month-on-month and 5.5% year-on-year was recorded in December, marking the second consecutive increase after 12 months of declines. Sectors such as manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade showed increases of 6.7% and 7.4% respectively, while construction experienced a decline of 7.1%. Despite the downturn in construction, economic activity is only 2.2% below its historical maximum of November 2017.
The recovery has exceeded expectations, with a statistical drag of 3.2% for this year. If the economy maintains its current level, a growth of over 5% is estimated for 2025. Preliminary activity indicators in January suggest that economic expansion continues, strengthening confidence in the macroeconomic stability of the country.
