In the year 2024, the Argentine economy recorded a growth of 5.5%, a result higher than expected, mainly due to a 27% adjustment in public spending. Despite the year-end showing a decline of 1.8%, excluding the agricultural sector which experienced a strong recovery after the previous year's drought, the contraction was more pronounced, reaching 4%. Experts like Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina and the consulting firm EcoGo expect that even the rebound could exceed the initial 5%.
As part of the negotiations with the IMF, markets are attentive to the magnitude and timing of the financial support that would be agreed upon. Despite existing uncertainty, it is considered that the economic fundamentals of the country remain solid, with political conflicts being the main focus amid disputes between the government and the opposition.
Several consulting firms have already raised their GDP growth projections, although they warn about possible internal and external risks that could affect these estimates. Both the Argentine government and the IMF estimate a growth of 5% for this year; however, this figure is expected to be revised upwards.
The Argentine Minister of Economy has expressed confidence in the imminent arrival of an agreement with the IMF, highlighting the good relationship with the officials of the international organization. Financial support is expected to be finalized before mid-year, which would help strengthen the country's reserves. Despite differences over exchange rate policy, efforts are being made to keep the exchange rate gap below 20%.
The Argentine government emphasizes fiscal balance as one of its main assets in negotiations and celebrates the economic growth recorded despite adversities. A GDP growth of more than the originally projected 5% is anticipated, which is considered a favorable scenario leading up to the legislative elections in October.
In summary, the Argentine economy has surpassed expectations by recording a growth of 5.5% in 2024, showing signs of recovery that generate optimism in both the markets and the government. Adjustments in public spending and upward projections indicate a promising outlook for the country in the current year.
