According to a report from Bank of America (BOFA), between 2025 and 2028, Argentina will face payments totaling US$21 billion, consisting of US$12 billion in principal and US$9 billion in interest. A large portion of the disbursements will be allocated to cover these obligations. Despite the IMF's support for the government's economic policy, BOFA warns that the organization will request an additional fiscal adjustment equivalent to 1% of GDP between 2026 and 2027.
The IMF will require greater flexibility in the foreign exchange market, leading to a more free-floating depreciation rate towards the end of the year. The Central Bank will gradually relax capital controls, starting with those affecting production. The gradual removal of restrictions is suggested, such as reducing the 3-month waiting period for companies to buy dollars in the official market after operating in the parallel market and increasing the daily purchase limit in the parallel market, currently at US$200,000.
Regarding the agreement with the IMF, BOFA considers that Argentina could obtain an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with an initial disbursement of between US$5 billion and US$10 billion, depending on the level of fiscal adjustment and exchange rate flexibility. There is a possibility of obtaining between US$11 billion and US$15 billion, although the IMF could approve up to US$20 billion due to debt maturities with the organization.
The report projects a gradual removal of restrictions after the mid-term elections in October, which would allow for the unification of the exchange rate in December. A reserve accumulation target is expected as part of the IMF program, which will require greater flexibility in exchange rate policy.
BOFA anticipates that the IMF will promote the reduction of the "blend" dollar for exporters and limit the Central Bank's intervention in financial dollars. Additionally, they estimate that the final agreement could be closed in March at the staff level of the IMF and approved in Congress in April.
In summary, the report highlights that the gradual removal of currency restrictions and capital controls will allow Argentina to return to international debt markets and achieve a reclassification as an emerging market in 2026. In this context, BOFA recommends overweighting Argentine dollar bonds within investment portfolios.
