The development of Vaca Muerta in Argentina is generating expectations, as it is expected to generate about "13 billion dollars" by 2025. This economic growth would occur genuinely through the export of energy, marking a crucial difference with the era of the liberal Menem model, which was characterized by the lack of genuine dollars once the privatizations were completed.
Some critics believe that this new model could lead to the same collapse as the previous one. However, there are significant differences between both economic approaches. While the model of the 90s ended in default in 2001 due to a chronic fiscal deficit financed with sovereign debt, the current proposal aims to generate income in genuine dollars through the trade account instead of the capital account.
Argentina has been experiencing an economic situation that has been compared to a quasi-communist model since the default of 2001. However, the discovery of Vaca Muerta has opened new possibilities in the country's economic landscape, allowing for a more liberal and market-oriented approach.
In contrast to local opinions that predict a devaluation and distrust the proposed model, Wall Street has a more optimistic view regarding the Argentine economy. A continued disinflation and a strong economic rebound are expected throughout 2025, suggesting greater confidence from international investors.
The perspective of Argentina as an emerging country requires adequate fiscal measures to support its long-term economic stability. The development of Vaca Muerta could mean a significant change in foreign currency generation for the country, as long as it stays away from the socialist policies of Peronism and radicalism.
In summary, the economic potential of Vaca Muerta represents an opportunity to transform the Argentine economy, marking a new direction towards a more competitive and free market-oriented model. Despite the criticisms and uncertainty, this discovery could mean a groundbreaking change in the economic history of the country.
