Thursday, October 31 marks the end of the first stage of the capital amnesty approved by the Government as part of the fiscal package. This Asset Regularization Regime has exceeded the expectations of both Javier Milei and Luis Caputo as well as industry specialists.
Stage 1 of the amnesty will be available until next year; however, it is considered the most attractive due to its lower rate and the possibility of regularizing cash without fines up to $100,000. From Friday, November 2, and until the end of January 2025, Stage 2 will open, with a rate of 10% on the total amount of regularized assets and capital over $100,000.
Although official data on the final balance of the first phase of the amnesty has not yet been published, encouraging figures are expected for the Government. A positive indicator is the increase in dollar deposits in banks, which are nearing record levels. The total stock stands at $31.634 billion, exceeding the maximum recorded on September 30 and close to surpassing the historical record of $32.492 billion during Mauricio Macri's administration in August 2019.
Estimates suggest that this record will soon be surpassed, which is crucial for the Central Bank's reserves. It is expected that part of these dollar deposits, coming from the amnesty, will be used to increase the BCRA's gross reserves through bank reserves.
According to the consulting firm LCG, the increase in reserves is due to the higher accumulation of reserves by banks, which seem to be passing on part of the dollar deposits from the amnesty to the BCRA, assuming that their clients will not withdraw them. Furthermore, the low withdrawal of regularized funds by banks is boosting dollar loans, which should increase the BCRA's net reserves (although still negative).
The evolution of this situation is ongoing, and more updates are expected.
