Europe on the Brink of Energy Collapse

The European Union is today on the brink of an energy collapse, but is heading towards living with high prices, less maneuverability, and an increasingly intense bidding war for available gas. The conclusion of the study is as technical as it is political: in the face of crises like the one in Iran, the only lasting defense is not masked greater dependency, but less gas, more electricity, and more own capacity. And this shock would not be uniform: countries most dependent on gas to generate electricity, such as Italy and Ireland, would be much more exposed than those that advanced more decisively in renewable energy, nuclear power, and storage. The result is easy to understand: although Europe critically depends on Qatari gas, it ends up paying for the war of others, because the price of gas is set by a tense market, not a tranquil geography. That is the real risk for the bloc. In other words, the energy transition here ceases to be an abstract climate flag and becomes an issue of economic security and strategic sovereignty. The study also warns of a mistake that in Europe reappears every time gas prices soar: the temptation to respond with widespread subsidies, artificial caps, improvised taxes, or even worse, with the fantasy of reopening the Russian gas file. The case of Spain appears as one of the most illustrative: the strong growth of wind and solar energy drastically reduced the number of hours in which gas determines the price of electricity, which cushions the blow from external crises like the current one. Europe's problem today is not a direct and massive supply cut, but a brutal increase in the world LNG market, the growing pressure from Asian buyers, and a structural vulnerability that remains the same: the dependency on imported gas in an increasingly hostile international context. According to the study, that country (Spain) represents only about 4% of the bloc's total gas imports, although its weight is much higher in specific markets such as Italy, Belgium, and Poland. If gas prices were to double, Europe's annual energy bill could increase by around 100 billion euros, almost doubling the import cost compared to 2025. The rest will continue to pay, time and again, the cost of having confused energy security with simple import availability for years. The diagnosis, developed in a study published by Le Grand Continent and backed by Bruegel analysis from the European Commission itself, points to an uncomfortable truth: Europe is better off than it was three years ago, but is still a hostage to a global energy market it does not control. The Union's direct exposure to Qatari gas is relatively limited. Said without euphemisms: the serious answer is not to return to the fuel of Russian blackmail, but to depend less on gas in general. In the end, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz left another lesson that Brussels should have already learned: diversification helps, but it is not enough if it is not accompanied by a real reduction in exposure to fossil fuels. In that scenario, the countries that have electrified the most, renewed their matrix, and contained their consumption will be the least vulnerable. The exit, on the contrary, lies elsewhere: ensure sufficient storage before the winter of 2026-2027, coordinate LNG purchases with large importers such as Japan and South Korea, reduce the structural demand for gas, and accelerate electrification, especially through heat pumps, renewable expansion, and better-integrated networks. The authors are sharp on this matter: reopening the door to Russia would mean rebuilding the dependency that the bloc took three years to dismantle at the cost of enormous political and economic efforts. This has already become clear: several shipments, including American ones, have begun to be diverted from Europe to Asia, where dependence on the Gulf is greater and the competition for supply is fiercer. Because about 20% of global LNG flows pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and when that bottleneck closes or becomes unstable, the impact is transferred to the entire global market. It would also be a very bad signal for investment in clean energy and for European political cohesion. But that does not mean the bloc is safe. However, the relief ends there. Madrid-4 April 2026-Total News Agency-TNA-The war being fought by the United States and Israel against Iran and the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz did not place the European Union on the brink of an immediate supply crisis like the one it suffered after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.