Household consumption slowed in the second half of the year after recovering in the first half, reflecting purchasing decisions on the shelves, according to private studies.
The Consumer Insights Q3.25 report, prepared by Worldpanel by Numerator, reflects that mass consumption stopped its recovery in the third quarter and moderated its annual growth after the rebound in the first half. With a lower purchase volume and fewer visits to points of sale, consumption dynamics differ among socioeconomic segments, while proximity channels are gaining relevance again in the purchase routine.
«With a lower purchase frequency and tighter baskets, households close the year with greater pressure on their budgets and polarized expectations,» the study noted, as reported by the Argentine News Agency (NA).
Consumption slowdown: lower purchase volume and lower frequency
The results show an accumulated year-on-year growth of 1.5% between January and September, with a 0.7% drop in the last quarter that slows the recovery. In the analysis of household behavior, it is evident that families reduced both visits to points of sale (–2.2%) and the volume of their purchases (–2.1%), a double pressure that explains the retreat in the last period in almost the entire country, with the center being the only exception.
In turn, the average price paid by buyers between July and September decelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 23.9%, in line with a price reshuffling and a more selective purchase mix.
Greater pressure on the budget and more selective consumption
The Worldpanel report reflects an increase in financial pressure on households, which are adjusting their purchasing decisions and prioritizing essential products. The percentage of buyers who claim to be tight on money by the end of the month rises to 43%, after having reached 29% in the first quarter of the year.
Hope remains the predominant sentiment (38%) among those surveyed, while optimism retreats to 42% and 22% expect to be in a worse situation within a year. This perception is reflected in the spending mix of the third quarter. Consumption becomes more selective, and the purchase of essential products such as dry foods (+0.8%), dairy (+0.5%), and personal care (+1.9%) is prioritized, being these the categories with the highest growth between January and September, along with refrigerated foods.
In contrast, the most dispensable categories with the highest price increases are declining, such as alcoholic beverages (-4.8%).
The search for brands and value in products
In this scenario, many households are intensifying the search for more accessible alternatives. In the third quarter, the volume of purchases in the most economical segment increased by 2.3%, and store brands grew by 6.8%.
«39% of spending today is done through promotions,» highlights Esteban Cagnoli, Managing Director of Worldpanel by Numerator in Argentina.
In this scenario, proximity channels continue to gain ground. In the first nine months of the year, supermarkets expanded their buyer base by 4.6%, convenience stores and kiosks by 3.1%, pharmacies by 2.4%, and the perfumery segment by 5.7%; compared to 1.8% in the modern channel.
In turn, when observing the volume of household purchases in the third quarter, the modern channel (supermarkets, hypermarkets, etc.) reflects more intensely the contraction of total consumption, falling by 3.4% compared to the previous year, even in a context of greater promotional effort.
Similarly, an analysis by NielsenIQ Argentina, a leader in consumer intelligence, shows that mass consumption maintains a fragile recovery in 2025: it grew +2% in the first half but decelerated from mid-year, deepened by electoral uncertainty in the third quarter.
Stagnant wage recovery, the main problem for families
Despite inflation falling and some macro indicators showing relief, the consumption of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) is still far from 2023 levels, and wage recovery continues to be partial, especially in middle and low-income households.
According to NielsenIQ, low wages and lack of employment continue to be the main problems cited by families.
«For 2026 we expect a slight consumption growth, but there is still a long way to return to previous levels,» stated Julián Fernández, Analytics Manager of NielsenIQ Argentina.
According to NIQ, consumption grew in 2025, but only +2% vs 2024, after a historic fall of -16% the previous year.
The trend shows that 2026 could bring a moderate recovery, supported by:
• Greater inflationary stability • A gradual improvement in incomes • More efficient pricing and assortment strategies
«The sector will have to prepare for a more rational consumer, sensitive to price and willing to switch between channels,» concluded the author.
Omnichannel and the rise of neighborhood stores
Omnichannel continues to strengthen, with households combining four or more shopping channels each month, in search of prices and convenience. Although inflation has eased to multi-year lows, disposable income only achieved a partial recovery and then stagnated.
«Wage recovery is generally stagnant, and while Middle and Low NSEs continue to bear the increase in household costs, High NSEs change their share of wallet: FMCG is no longer aspirational, and travel, cars, and other reappear with force». «The shopper needs a clear justification to pay more for a brand».
