Argentina's pension system is in a critical phase: the loss of over 100,000 contributors in the first half of the year, a pension deficit that has already reached 4.5 trillion pesos, and a decline in purchasing power of over 12% since Javier Milei took office paint a picture of structural vulnerability that anticipates profound reforms. Between January and June 2025, the National Social Security Administration (ANSES) recorded a reduction of 101,347 contributors, bringing the ratio to just 1.8 active workers per retiree, far below the sustainability threshold of three to one. Since November 2023, the purchasing power of pensions has fallen by 12%, and by 24% over the last four years. The contraction of formal employment and the precariousness of the labor market worsen the system's financing equation, forcing the National Treasury to cover a growing deficit that, according to the Argentine Budget Association (ASAP), reached 4.5 trillion pesos by the end of September. The most immediate impact falls on pension benefits. In parallel, the Ministry of Human Capital, led by Sandra Pettovello, officially approved a 2.1% adjustment for November that will fall below expected inflation, accentuating the real loss of purchasing power towards the end of the year. The elimination of the pension moratorium has also contributed to the deterioration. This particularly affects women and informal workers who cannot meet the required contribution years, widening coverage gaps. According to the Argentine Center for Political Economy (CEPA), the new mobility scheme—which adjusts benefits only according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—has solidified the erosion of pension incomes. The average monthly income of retirees in September was 675,510 pesos, 4.9% lower in real terms than last year. With a stagnant labor market and persistent inflation, Argentine pensions face a cycle of impoverishment that is difficult to reverse. Between March 2024 and February 2025, minimum pensions with a bonus increased by 67.8%, against an accumulated inflation of 115%, which explains the contraction in purchasing power and the growing gap with the cost of living. The budget projected for 2026 does not foresee additional increases beyond the inflation adjustment or changes to the complementary bonus, which implies a new real loss. ANSES, in turn, already allocates nearly 60% of consolidated public spending to social security, according to ASAP, while the contributory base shrinks and the state absorbs an ever-increasing portion of the financing. The combination of fewer contributors, frozen bonuses, and a record fiscal deficit anticipates a scenario of social tension. The Executive projects to include a pension reform in its 2026 agenda, but experts warn that any attempt at adjustment without an improvement in formal employment could worsen the crisis. Since the Executive vetoed the extension approved by Congress, the number of new benefits fell by 22,412 during the third quarter, marking the first decline since its implementation.
